This week we see: -Baseball gains accelerating slightly -Basketball gains de-accelerating slightly -Football index slightly negative -Soccer giving back last week’s gains -Pokemon at the same weekly gain pace -One Piece getting hammered -S&P 500 turning to a weekly gain -Gold negative after a huge week last -Bitcoin continuing its downtrend
Are you worried about One Piece? Do you care about One Piece? But did you know Monkey D. Luffy is king of the pirates?!?
One Piece is a nascent market, which word stems from the Latin word for “born,” which I’m telling you because it is a baby in market terms (first US release December 2022). So, like a baby, the index will be mirthful and vivacious one minute, and then have a blowout and be covered in its own feces the next. All this to colorfully say don’t sweat a week, but mind the trend.
It was curious to see gold up 8% last week with Bitcoin down over 3%. Many label Bitcoin “Digital Gold,” because Satoshi engineered it to have the 6 properties of money, but a cryptocurrency cannot be engineered to be “acceptable” or “stable.” Bitcoin, like One Piece, is nascent and thus highly volatile.
Matt
The News
Buy a future GOAT young, or Beginner’s Luck?
Cooper Flagg has been on fire, and Thursday night may have been the rookie’s best game yet, as he lit up Charlotte for 49 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assists. “On fire” may be an understatement, as he’s averaging 18.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists over the first half of the season. But is this sports card market sizzle or steak?
Prospecting is the gold mining of the sports card world. If you are too susceptible to hype, you will fritter your money away on irrational exuberance. If you are too slow to act, you’ll miss the biggest outsized returns when that prospect hits it big. That’s why, truthfully, I don’t prospect at all.
But I do have much wiser and more experienced friends who do and share their wisdom. Bryan, the past lead recruiter for the Nike EYBL program, was my guest for the Slabnomics episode “Scouting Cards.” I asked Bryan:
“On the prospecting piece, what would you say is the one marker that you say sets people apart so that you can get in on it early?”His answer was very practical: “You have to think that that player can be the best player on his NBA team…you want to pick up guys that can be one name guys.”
You may be wondering, does that apply to Cooper Flagg?? Unfortunately I don’t prospect (remember?), so I can’t give you that answer. Check out Episode 17 on Spotify or Apple Podcasts and Bryan’s content on Youtube for more frameworks to sort the variables out to make your best guess.
But I will say that in Slabnomics Market/Legacy/Design card valuation framework, he not out of the running.
The Framework
“Give me a place to stand and a brackett, and I will move the world” – Archimedes (probably)
It’s not quite March, but sometimes you need a little amuse bouche of Madness.
I launched the first matchup of the Rookie 25 Year Hold bracket on my Slabnomics Instagram yesterday, and if you haven’t voted you still can here up until Monday. If you missed it that’s too bad, but don’t sweat it because Monday morning the second matchup vote goes live for an Ohtani rookie card vs. one of Steph Curry.
Now, you may be thinking to yourself things like, “why is Matt shamelessly plugging an instagram post in the Framework section of the Comped Newsletter?” Here’s why:
Current Results
What I love about this bracket is that there are so many variables you’re going to see through the 3-week life of it: BGS 9.5s, 10s, and Black Label 10s against PSA 10s, 9s against SGC 10s and even SGC Gold Label 10s. Vintage vs. Modern. Different sports legends against each other. Same sports with different time periods.
And through it all, I’ll be watching and pulling out insights from what you tell me. So far, here’s the rationale for why people have been voting the way they have in the comments and DMs:
Lebron Word Cloud
Brady Word Cloud
So just from a rudimentary analysis here, the case for Lebron in this battle centers on the gold, high-end, numbered aspects of the card, whereas the Brady element is heavily skewed toward the unquestioned GOATness, and global expansion for which the NFL has been planting the seeds over the past several years. In the MLD framework I mentioned earlier, the expansion of a market has an outsized impact, so this callout makes me happy.
Maybe not ground-breaking stuff in these clouds, but imagine how much more data we’ll have to go on by the time we get to the end…
Follow along @Slabnomics for daily workday matchups, and be sure to comment on why you made your choice so you can let your voice be heard in the data!
A Final Note❝
Data can’t lie, it can only be unclear.
Data+Business Intelligence=The FutureMe
Keep Building,
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The content reflects the author's personal opinions and analysis and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any assets. Sports cards and collectibles are speculative investments with significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author may hold positions in assets discussed in this newsletter. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial, tax, and legal professionals before making any investment decisions. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept these terms.
