Congratulations on being here for the first issue of Comped. I am ecstatic that you are here from the very beginning, as we get to make this journey together.
Plus, just like in sets, the first always matters.
You may be wondering what insights are going to specifically apply to YOU…and that’s something on which I rely on you. Send me emails, shoot me DMs, and let me know what you find important, and what you’re personally experiencing.
I’m grateful to be part of such a vibrant, passionate community, and I take seriously my mission to help sports card enthusiasts make better fianancial decisions so The Hobby can grow in a healthy way.
We are the card market; I can’t wait to see what we do this year.
Matt
Feature Story
2026 Forecast
In 2024 and early 2025, I was telling whichever friends would listen (and those that wouldn’t) that cards aren’t just cardboard, but an alternative asset class that is worth $13 Billion according to Verified Market Research. This seems silly in hindsight, as the overarching collectibles market at the end of 2025 is valued at $100 Billion and projected to reach $271 billion by 2034.
In 2025, we saw a definitive flight to quality. The market was “K-shaped,” meaning High-end assets, like the 2007 Upper Deck Exquisite Jordan/Kobe Dual Logoman which sold for $12.9 million, are behaving like blue-chip art or private equity and popping off.
Meanwhile overprinted modern cards are suffering from an oversupply drag, so low end cards are underperforming.
Does it kontinue?
From my analysis of 2019-2024, Covid Boom to Post-Covid Bear Market, the demand flow was opposite; it was the low-end market that powered the gains of 2020. You may be asking yourself, “how did small cards under $500 power such massive price increases???”
That’s a good question, and check out my instagram @slabnomics for some content around that more in-depth, but a summary would be a simultaneous surge of demand drivers that had never aligned before: stimulus checks, lockdown boredom, sports cancellations creating nostalgia, early winners on social media, and the 'cards are the new stocks' narrative.
But the 100 Billion Dollar Question: Does this K-shape continue in 2026? Time will tell, but I believe the low-end will have its hey-day, as alternative assets continue to go more mainstream. What do you think, does the valuation surge continue in sports cards at the high to mid end this year, or will there be more mass adoption at the lower entry points?
The Financial Takeaway: Smart money is moving into scarcity. Institutional investors are entering the space, treating grail cards as hedges against broader market volatility and vehicles for alternative investment.
PS: I don’t have data on this, but I believethe NBA changing the logo to Lebron is a massive tailwind for his card market in the long term. Marketing matters more than we think.
Hobby Signals
Dallas Card Show 1/16/2026
Card shows, like everything else, are bigger in Texas. When I first emerge from the hallway into the Big Room in Dallas, I’m always struck by the sheer spectacle of light and sound: the flurescent wonderland of plexiglass-encased cards waiting to be discovered, while thousands of voices form a murmur or a roar. Anything is possible on those tables, and as new friends become old friends the chaos feels more and more like home.
I love Dallas Card Show because I’ve found it’s a great barometer for The Hobby, like an index to showcase how the inventory has changed since the last show. Here are a few concrete things I noticed so far this show:
1) Sports Cards are alive and well in Dallas. In Austin it’s 80% Pokemon, while in Dallas it’s 70% sports. 2) Soccer is heating up. It i much more common to see soccer mixed in to tables compared to previous shows, and no just a token Lamine Yamal…much more variety. 3) Case Hits show no signs of slowing down. 4) Kids are noticeably more present than the last couple shows: a very positive momentum indicator. 5) Vendors are more mixed in offerings. Even guys that seem solidly sports-centric usually have a few pokemon, and this is usually (but not always) vintage.
What have you noticed out in the wild? Give me a shout with your thoughts!
