Episode 37 PSA 9 is Dead. All Hail Gem Mint 10

Released: January 13, 2026 | Duration: 24:23

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About This Episode

The Problem/Question: You’ve been told PSA 9 is a solid grade. Safe. Respectable. But in modern and ultra-modern cards, that PSA 9 is increasingly selling for less than a raw copy fresh out of the pack. The grading explosion of the last five years has fundamentally broken the economics of the PSA 9 – and most collectors are still pricing their portfolios as if it hasn’t.

The Framework/Solution: This episode dives into data across three eras – vintage, modern, and ultra-modern – and four sports: baseball, basketball, football, and soccer. The finding is clear: it’s not about the sport, the player, or the era. The single variable that determines whether a PSA 9 has investment value is the gem rate. From 1991 to 2019, PSA created five million total PSA 10s. In 2025 alone, 6.5 million new PSA 10s entered the market. When 60 to 70% of a set grades a 10, the 9 stops being a grade. It becomes a failure certificate.

What You’ll Learn: By the end of this episode, you’ll know exactly when PSA 9s hold massive value, when to crack a 9 and sell it raw, and how to identify the rare cards where a 9 is actually the buying opportunity everyone else is ignoring.

Topics Covered

  • Why 6.5 million new PSA 10s entered the market in 2025 alone
  • Vintage PSA 9 analysis: Nolan Ryan rookie, Walter Payton 1976, Bird-Magic-Dr. J 1980-81
  • How population ratios predict the 9-to-10 price premium in vintage
  • Modern era: Luka, Ohtani, Mahomes, and Messi  –  2x to 2.5x multiples explained
  • Why the Messi Topps Chrome shows modern metrics despite being a newer set
  • Ultra-modern: Tatis, Burrow, Wembanyama, and Yamal  –  when even PSA 10s barely cover grading fees
  • The gem rate threshold: why 60-70% destroys PSA 9 value
  • Actionable pre-grading checklist: when to grade and when to walk away
  • The grading explosion: 31 million PSA 10s created since 2020 vs. 5 million in the prior 28 years
  • How to find rare nines that the market is sleeping on

Full Transcript Summary

Today we’re going to do something I’ve been alluding to for a while. We’re going to look at PSA 9 versus PSA 10. I’m going to look at three different eras – modern, ultra-modern, and vintage – and compare across sports: soccer, baseball, basketball, and football. By the end of this episode, you’re going to know why PSA 9s are valued the way they are, why that’s changed from what it used to be, and what opportunities you can look out for to profit on sports cards.

Before we dive in – Slabnomics.com is now live. The newsletter is called Comped, it drops every Saturday morning, and it’s completely free. Head over to slabnomics.com and put in your email to get the first edition.

The Grading Explosion That Broke PSA 9

Let’s start with the core thesis. PSA 9s: are they dead? Or could they be a buy-low opportunity?

I dived into this data with an open mind. I wanted the data to tell me what it wanted to say. And what it told me is this: one of the primary reasons PSA 9s may never reclaim their status is the grading explosion of the past five years.

In 2025, 26.8 million cards were graded. PSA alone accounted for over 19 million of those. Their gem rate was 34% across all submissions – which means 6.5 million new PSA 10s came into the world in 2025 alone.

Now here’s the historical context that makes that number staggering. From 1991 until 2019 – 28 years – PSA created only five million total PSA 10s. That’s 1.5 million fewer than what hit the market in a single year.

From 2020 to 2025, annual PSA volume ran about 15 million graded cards per year, producing roughly five million new PSA 10s each year. Add it all up: 31 million PSA 10s created in the last six years, versus the five million that existed in all prior history. And I’d argue that five million is a generous count for the pre-COVID era. It’s probably closer to a 10 to 12x differential.

This has led us into the junk slab era. Everything is getting graded, only 10s really matter, and nines are often selling for less than raw. The fundamental question becomes: how do we value a PSA 9 in this environment?

Vintage: Where PSA 9 Still Has Power

Let me walk you through vintage first, because this is where the 9-to-10 framework actually works.

I compared three iconic cards: the 1968 Topps Nolan Ryan rookie, the 1976 Topps Walter Payton, and the 1980-81 Topps Bird-Magic-Dr. J triple rookie panel. I chose these because their graded populations are as similar as I could find across the three major sports.

Nolan Ryan 1968 Topps: One PSA 10. Sixty-eight PSA 9s. That PSA 10 last sold in 2020 for $600,000 – which I’d call a steal. PSA 9s sell between $70,000 and $115,000. That gives you a 5x to 8x price ratio from 9 to 10. If you factor in what that single PSA 10 would sell for today, you’re probably looking at $5 to $6 million – which would make the pop ratio and the price ratio nearly identical at around 60x to 68x. The gem rate here is less than 0.01%.

Walter Payton 1976 Topps: 56 PSA 10s, 860 PSA 9s – a population ratio of roughly 15x. PSA 9s sell consistently around $5,000. PSA 10s sell for $85,000. That’s a 17x price ratio. Population 15x, price 17x – spitting distance.

Bird-Magic-Dr. J 1980-81 Topps: 24 PSA 10s, 613 PSA 9s – a 25x population ratio. PSA 9 prices range from $9,000 to $16,000. A PSA 10 runs $500,000 and up. The price ratio is actually higher than the pop ratio, and that’s because three legendary Hall of Fame rookies on a single card command demand factors that go beyond pure scarcity math.

The gem rates here are 0.3%, 0.15%, and less than 0.01%. This is true scarcity. The older these cards get, the less likely any new 10s emerge. The survival premium compounds like Bitcoin halving – the rarer the event, the more it matters.

Modern Era: When 2.5x Became the New Normal

Now we move into modern, and this is where the framework starts to break.

I looked at four generational players across four sports from the same approximate time period: Luka Doncic in basketball, Shohei Ohtani in baseball, Patrick Mahomes in football, and Lionel Messi in soccer. For each, I compared the base card and the silver parallel.

Luka Doncic 2018 Prizm base: PSA 10 around $210, PSA 9 around $84. That’s a 2.5x multiple. Gem rate: approximately 70%.

Ohtani 2018 Topps Chrome base: PSA 10 around $825, PSA 9 around $417. A 2x multiple. Gem rate: 30 to 40%.

Mahomes 2017 Donruss Optic base: PSA 10 around $1,000, PSA 9 around $400-500. Approximately 2.3x multiple. Gem rate: about 40%.

Messi 2017 Topps Chrome base: PSA 10 around $240, PSA 9 around $100-120. About a 2x ratio. Gem rate: similar range.

The 9:10 Multiple

Across all four sports, we’re seeing a consistent 2x to 2.5x multiple from 9 to 10 in the modern era. That’s the new floor. And here’s what’s interesting: the Messi Topps Chrome was the first year that set ever existed – essentially what the 2012 versions of the other sports looked like when they first came out. But it’s already showing the same metrics as cards that have been around for nearly a decade. That tells you the demand for soccer cards is still way below where it should be. These multiples are supply-and-demand functions, and the demand side for soccer hasn’t arrived yet.

Now the silvers:

Luka silver: PSA 10 around $1,300-1,400, PSA 9 around $550. 2.5x multiple. Gem rate around 60%.

Ohtani refractor: PSA 10 around $2,200, PSA 9 just over $1,000. About 2x multiple. Gem rate: 69%. There are actually more PSA 10s than 9s for this card.

Mahomes Prizm silver: PSA 10 around $4,000-4,300, PSA 9 around $1,000. 3.5x to 4x multiple. Gem rate: 18%.

That Mahomes silver is the outlier – and it explains everything. At 18% gem rate, the scarcity dynamics are starting to resemble vintage. The 4x multiple reflects that. When gem rate drops, the 9-to-10 premium climbs. The formula is consistent.

Messi 2017 Topps Chrome refractor: About $650-700 for a PSA 10, around $300 for a PSA 9. 2x multiple. Demand lag again.

Ultra-Modern: Where PSA 9 Goes to Die

Ultra-modern is where the data gets uncomfortable.

I compared Fernando Tatis Jr. in baseball, Joe Burrow in football, Victor Wembanyama in basketball, and Lamine Yamal in soccer.

Base card PSA 9 prices: Tatis around $10. Burrow around $25. Wembanyama around $40. Yamal around $35.

Base card PSA 10 prices: Tatis around $25. Burrow around $90-100. Wembanyama around $135. Yamal around $150.

These PSA 10 prices barely cover grading fees. And the PSA 9 prices? You’d spend more on shipping.

But here’s the strange thing: because the absolute dollar values are so low despite gem rates of 55 to 60%, the ratio from 9 to 10 is actually higher than in modern. We’re seeing 2.5x up to 4x on these ultra-modern cards. That’s not because the nines have value. It’s because you’re buying the label – the proof that a card hit the top grade. The 9 just represents everything the 10 isn’t.

Wembanyama’s base actually has more PSA 10s than PSA 9s. The 2.5x ratio there is pure label premium, not scarcity math.

The Gem Rate Rule

So what does all of this tell us?

It’s not about the sport. It’s not about the player. It’s not even about the era.

It’s about the gem rate.

When gem rates are below 10%, the 9-to-10 premium behaves like vintage – it tracks the population ratio closely and can reach 5x, 10x, even 60x. Gem rates hitting 40 to 60%, you’re looking at a 2x to 2.5x multiple, and the 9 is increasingly irrelevant. When gem rates exceed 60 to 70%, the PSA 9 becomes a failure certificate. It’s the card that didn’t make it.

From 1991 to 2025, PSA graded over 110 million cards and created more than 31 million PSA 10s. In the junk slab era, 10 is normal. 9 is a disappointment.

Actionable Strategy: When to Grade, When to Walk Away

If you’re pre-grading a modern or ultra-modern card – which you should always do before submitting – here’s the decision tree:

If it’s a base card or a silver parallel with any visible corner wear, scratch, or edge issue, do not grade it. The upside doesn’t justify the cost.

If you’re looking at nines in a set with a 60-70% gem rate, there is no long-term play. The only path to nines mattering is if tens become scarce – and that requires rare parallels. You need to be in the oranges, the golds, maybe blues or reds. Anything numbered low enough that the gem rate tells a different supply story.

If you find a card with a low gem rate in a set that the market doesn’t fully understand yet, and that card is of a player who matters – that nine is potentially a buying opportunity. Most people will look past it because the market has trained everyone to dismiss nines. That’s inefficiency you can exploit.

Know your gem rate. Know your population. Know when the nine is a failure certificate and when it’s a diamond hiding in plain sight.

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