Issue #17 | May 9, 2026
Comped
The Numbers
Everyone is happy?
–Baseball another small w
–Basketball 10 week streak
–Football remains tepid in movement
–Soccer World Cup in 33 days
–Pokemon 17 consecutive weeks of gains, no ACL tear in sight
–One Piece trading good weeks and bad weeks consistently
–S&P 500 very bullish trend forming
–Gold bounce back up from a few down weeks
–Bitcoin up, but not decisively
If you’ve read the last couple issues of Comped, I’ve spoken about how bullish the market indicators have been for cards, the stock market, and the broader economy as a whole.
This trend strengthens this week.
A little birdie tells me that tech hiring (and thus spending) have also taken on a decidedly bullish outlook. This is critical, as business optimism is a known leading indicator of stock returns and GDP growth for the U.S.
This can always change at the drop of the hat, but all signs point to the prevailing information comprising broad market knowledge is decidedly optimistic.
It will be very interesting to see how AI starts impacting corporate earnings…When those begin lifting off, sentiment will soar and stock prices with it.
The News
RIP Panini
Maybe you thought the switching of the NBA and NFL licenses from Panini to Topps wasn’t a big deal.
Maybe you figured Fanatics’ almost complete vertical integration control/influence from manufacturing to resale isn’t too big of a deal (they have all in bold):
License → Manufacture → Distribute → Sell (1st & 2nd market) → Authenticate/Grade → Store→ Resell
But this new announcement of Topps taking the World Cup license from Panini is the nail in the coffin.
I’m sure all of you reading this aren’t huge on soccer cards, but the World Cup license is the white whale of that market. Topps Chrome is big, but Panini’s World Cup set that’s run every four years from 2014-this year completely dwarfs those sets in total resale value.
Here’s an easy comparison:
In late 2025, a 2017 Topps Chrome Messi Gold /50 PSA 10 sold for $34,465….The Card Ladder value for a 2014 Prizm World Cup Messi Gold /10 PSA 10 is $837,000.
That means one 2014 Prizm World Cup Messi Gold Gem is worth more than all 12 of the Gold 2017 Topps Chrome Gems combined.
Soccer has a more complicated licensing structure than we’re used to in other sports, because we’re used to one overarching license, but effectively the value for the licenses goes:
1) FIFA World Cup
2) Champion’s League
3) Premier League
4) Bundesliga
5) Serie A
6) K League
And the World Cup one is arguably worth more than all the others combined.
Panini had a long, storied tradition in Europe due to their sticker manufacturing ever since 1970, so this may send some real shockwaves (especially if this means they can’t manufacture World Cup stickers).
That’s a huge deal, and shows just how aggressive Topps has been.
The Framework
You are {where}
One of my favorite parts of having this newsletter for you, is that I can expand on things I went over in the podcast that are bad for radio. It pains me to fling number after number on the pod, but hopefully everyone is subbed to Comped to alleviate that pain. Make sure your friends are – that helps me a lot!
I talked about the importance of knowing where we are in market cycles, so that you can catch the proper tailwinds, and guard against risk. Of course, it’s also imperative to understand that trying to time the market is a fools errand. There’s the rub.
From my research, this is where the charts are showing we are in the 3 size indexes (High +$5k, Mid $500-$5k, Low <$500) as well as the four major sports for your reference:
Segment
Wyckoff Stage
3yr Growth
Low-End
Early Markup
+2.63%
Baseball
Mid Markup
+32.85%
Mid-End
Mid-to-Late Markup
+42.74%
Basketball
Late Markup (healthy)
+53.42%
Soccer
Late Markup (catalyst pullback)
+58.82%
High-End
Late Markup (volume warning)
+63.26%
Football
Late Markup → Possible Distribution
+16.69%
“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”
Seneca
Keep Building,
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The content reflects the author’s personal opinions and analysis and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any assets. Sports cards and collectibles are speculative investments with significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author may hold positions in assets discussed in this newsletter. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial, tax, and legal professionals before making any investment decisions. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept these terms.