Risky Business (But The Good Kind)

Issue #16 | May 2, 2026


Comped

The Numbers

Looks like Risk is back on the menu, boys

Baseball eking out a w
Basketball 9 week streak
Football still in the doldrums of the offseason
Soccer World Cup in 40 days
Pokemon 16 consecutive weeks of gains…but slowing?
One Piece seesaws back down after big last week
S&P 500 strong trend is positive for several weeks
Gold deepening loss trend
Bitcoin down after two good weeks

In last week’s Comped, I talked about watching Gold to see if the risk-on rally was set to continue…All signs point decidedly yes.

This is great news for the stock market, and great news for cards markets which cannot do well when true crisis times are looming. When your hierarchical needs shift from Esteem and Love and Belonging down to Safety and Physiological, the card market disappears.

I hope we never have that happen again, but history’s rhyme pattern says it will. Be prepared for that eventuality.

Now dispel that doom and gloom, we are in the salad days right now!! All indicators point to smooth sailing.

The News

#NoPSAMay picking up steam

Never underestimate the power of a rhyming slogan.

Seems this movement is getting some push on social media, as hobbyists descry the price hikes, buyback allegations, and lengthening turn around times.

A thought worth thinking: The PSA Premium only exists based on the trust in the brand in the market. BGS 9.5 held the same kind of sway over PSA 10 a few short years ago…

Also worth thinking: PSA still grades about 90k cards per day vs. 15k in 2021. They’re grading 6x what they were at the height of the Covid boom.

Speaking of booms, if you’re asking what’s the biggest card release month of the year, “it’s 🎶gotta be may.” I’m writing this May 1st, so hopefully you’re not tired of the memes already by the morning of the 2nd…

But I digress. Here’s SOME of what’s releasing in May:

🐉May 9: Pokemon Mega Evolution – Chaos Rising Prerelease (Full on May 22)
⚾May 13: 2026 Bowman
🏈May 15: 2025 Topps Finest
⚽May 22: Prizm World Cup

Unreal.

The Framework

Going to wear this getup at the next card show (no gun)

The podcast this week was about hunting.

Like most things, though, we want to skip all the other things to get to the activity…We want to skip the prep and just eat the meal as it were.

Just like hunting, the symbiotic relationship of preparing to make money in cards, is most often more important than the actual wheeling and dealing that you end up doing at the card show.

I spoke at length about how I first wanted to find what had been working and what hadn’t been working over the past year, assessing all my trades and attaching meta-data tags to them.

Then I used those tags to create a short list for the kind of cards that had been successful for me. Try taking a .22 rifle to a dove hunt and you’ll see what I mean.

Combining that info with the players showing strongest demand, I was able to triangulate on true targets I could compare against other players in the set, in order to eliminate a variable (just like solving for X back in the day).

But the important factor here isn’t what I did, but the fact that I did it, and I’ve asked a lot of card guys who don’t do this kind of assessment.

Taking the time to do this prep work means you save yourself the money of costly mistakes that experience will teach you later.

If you’ve experienced this in cards yourself, send me a DM and tell me about it! I love hearing about those stories; I have my fair share.

For more resources and frameworks, check out Slabnomics.com, where all my resources live.

Tell me and I forget. Teach me and I remember. Involve me and I learn.

Benjamin Franklin

Keep Building,

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The content reflects the author’s personal opinions and analysis and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any assets. Sports cards and collectibles are speculative investments with significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author may hold positions in assets discussed in this newsletter. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial, tax, and legal professionals before making any investment decisions. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept these terms.


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