Issue #13 | April 11, 2026
Comped
The Numbers
Second straight all-green week
We go from our first all-green week in Slabnomics history last week, to a second straight historical week – You love to see it.
–Baseball nice lift after some listless weeks
–Basketball on a 6-week heater👇
–Football small gain is just me buying Topps Chrome 😎
–Soccer World Cup in 60 days
–Pokemon 13 straight weeks of gains, but a “weaker” one here
–One Piece flat after huge week last
–S&P 500 two great weeks, investors must love the ceasefire
–Gold rally continues
–Bitcoin finally a convincingly good week
Time to give some love to Basketball, the second most popular card market out there.
We’ve tracked six straight weeks of gains for a market that’s struggled to rebound from Covid. Here’s the numbers for how far the biggest markets fell:
I was SHOCKED to see how far of a drawdown football had post-Covid, but the numbers are the numbers. I always felt like the basketball story was more painful, and one missing piece of the puzzle is that the basketball index is 4x bigger in average daily volume of sales (in $).
So football fell harder in % as a smaller market, but basketball lost much more in overall value. Just good to see the market come back (unlike Zion Williamson).
The News
Drops April 15, 2026
If you follow me closely, you’re probably saying “PLEASE STOP TALKING ABOUT TOPPS CHROME.” But no one has actually said that to me, so here we are.
If you live under a Slabnomics-proof rock, you may know that Topps won the exclusive NFL and NBA licenses back, but may not know that they held the NFL license from 1956-2015.
But does that mean Topps is better than Panini? Just an opinion, but yes.
Does the market think so?
Well, one apples to apples comparison we can make, is the Dutch Auction for First Off the Line 2025 Panini Prizm Football, and First Day Issue Topps Chrome Football. All things are not equal, here, as print runs are unknown, but because both of these were 1) the same format and 2) demand-based outcomes, 3) the same draft class… we can call them both apples.
Here are the results:
11/24/25: 2025 Panini Prizm Football sold out at just below $1500/box.
4/6/2026: 2025 Topps Chrome Football sold out at $2800/box.
Say what you will about hype for a returning licensed product, this was also the last licensed Prizm set (for maybe 20 years).
Why should you care? See below.
The Framework
I’d read it
Bernie Sanders Voice: I am once again asking you to buy Topps Chrome.
If you want to see the rest of the post carousel on this subject, you can find it here on my Slabnomics Instagram.
Y’all know how sometimes I’m apt to say things in cards move slowly, then all at once? They’re already moving all at once, and they just keep going.
Another thing I’m fond of saying, possibly to a fault, is that demand moves in windows, often starting with the most obvious bets and then cascading down. Here’s what I mean.
If I say to you 1996-2015 football players you should invest in for a long horizon, what name first come to mind?
Yup, Aaron Rodgers. 😌 Go Pack Go. Jk (kinda).
Vast majority of you unbiased people might have come up with Tom Brady quickly, and it’s pretty clear the market did too. Here’s some early Topps Chrome moves for Brady cards:
2003 Topps Chrome Tom Brady Black Refractor /599 PSA 10 (first “refractor”)
June 28, 2025→Feb 28, 2026…+102%
2006 Topps Chrome Tom Brady Refractor PSA 10
July 1, 2025→Dec 29, 2025…+53.8%
2010 Topps Chrome Tom Brady Refractor PSA 10
April 13, 2025→Mar 17, 2026…+172%
These aren’t even rookies. They aren’t even low serial numbers. They’re just refractors.
…But they’re Topps Chrome refractors.
From here, expect a cascade down into the All-Time greats who will look cheap by comparison.
🎵Chicken parm, you taste so good🎵
Paintin’ Manning
Keep Building,
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The content reflects the author’s personal opinions and analysis and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any assets. Sports cards and collectibles are speculative investments with significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author may hold positions in assets discussed in this newsletter. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial, tax, and legal professionals before making any investment decisions. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept these terms.