Every week, you’ll see numbers for these 9 traditional and alternate markets.
Sometimes I’ll put some light commentary here for you on the card side, based on my own forecasts and research. For instance, no signs of the runaway train that is TCG slowing anytime soon.
At times I may even go back to my economist roots and go geopolitical.
For instance, seeing gold up so much with the S&P and Bitcoin down, usually points to risk-off in the markets (institutions/traders are uneasy with growing concerns over President Trump’s bellicose (war-hungry) signals.
This traditionally leads to weakness in more risky assets like bitcoin, and big gains for gold.
Matt
1 Week % Change (thanks Cardladder for the data)
The News
Fanatics reported the sale Friday said that it broke the record for most expensive card sold this year. I didn't know we were calling less than month a proper time period to slap the term record on it.
Probably cooler in the eyes of basketball fans to note that it ended on January 23…
111 angelic number on this is an under-discussed cool factor imo
This sale is extremely topical not just because I included this card in my multi-sport/TCG "Pick one to hold for 25 years and then sell" post on Instagram, but because of news that the NBA is reportedly considering switching out the official league logoman from Michael Jordan to Lebron James after he retires.
Would this switch be important at all for Lebron’s card market? From a purely marketing and psychology perspective, this is a resounding yes. There’s a concept called “Mere Exposure Effect” discovered in 1968 by a psychologist (wake up!) anyways he found that the more you see something, the more you like it.
Google confirmed this, the average customer needs 6-8 touchpoints before purchase.
If Lebron gets put on that logo, that 6-8 touchpoints before sports card purchase is going to happen VERY quickly for people that catch a game here and there…It doesn’t exactly work like that, there are some other steps in between, but it can only be positive momentum for Lebron’s market long term if it happens.
The Framework
I promise it’s not all going to be about grading 🙂
If you’re a sports card guy (or gal) and you start to learn about Pokemon, prepare to have your socks knocked clean off when you look at pop counts. I don’t know about you, but when I see a price tag of $2,000 on a card, I do not expect to find a pop count of 10,000+ PSA 10s in CardLadder. In ultramodern Pokemon, that’s just, well…normal. How can a card that common have a price tag like that?!?!
First off, as a market, Pokemon is MASSIVE. Kids are these hiveminds that all like the same Pokemon cards, get way too excited about random things, and all get sick at the same time. Honestly, I don’t know if this Pokemania will change long term because of nostalgia cycles, but we’ll save that for another newsletter.
Secondly, after a few months of hanging with Pokemon friends, talking to people at shows, and digging into data (as I do), the patterns have emerged clear as the song of lapras carried on the briny, foam-laden morning air: People don’t care about that PSA 10 pop and price because PSA 10 is really more like a PSA 9 to us sports card guys.
In those in-demand TCG cards, it’s the BGS 10 Pristine that really operate as the investment-level, long-term collector-grade asset. And the BGS 10 Black Label? That’s the “Super-Investment Grade,” which to be fair it is in sports as well. Not to leave out CGC, to my experience and understanding, the CGC 10 Pristine is similar to a PSA 10 in value, while a CGC 10 is more like a BGS 9.5 in sports. NUMBERS NUMBERS NUMBERS.
What does this mean to you? If the hyper supply in Pokemon led to higher valuation in BGS 10 Pristine and Black Label, wouldn’t it stand to reason that could happen in sports cards as the market gets bigger and bigger? Pokemon multiples can be 35x from PSA 10 to BGS Black label, but we don’t see that in sports cards. This could change with the right catalysts in the future.
A Final Note❝
"Your first level-up in cards: Stop waiting to be right. Let the market tell you if you were right."Me
Keep Building,
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The content reflects the author's personal opinions and analysis and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any assets. Sports cards and collectibles are speculative investments with significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author may hold positions in assets discussed in this newsletter. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial, tax, and legal professionals before making any investment decisions. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept these terms.
