Issue #24 | June 27, 2026
Comped
The Numbers
“Network effects”
–Baseball huge bounce back from flat last week
–Basketball 17 week streak, offseason hasn’t muted the glow yet
–Football continues to pick up steam
–Soccer stars are shining brightly
–Pokemon 24 consecutive weeks of gains
–One Piece great week, but still inconsistent
–S&P 500 giving back all last week’s gains and then some
–Gold stay away
–Bitcoin losses deepening
As a huge portion of the world (and yes, even the United States) tunes into the World Cup, we seem to be getting a sizable lift in not just soccer, but other sports cards markets as well.
One plausible explanation is network effects, the economic concept that states that the value of a good or service increases with an increase in users. More people watching sports means more people curious about sports memorabilia which means an increased card market.
Since many soccer fans are not sports cards fans (because North America holds 52% of the resale market) we’re getting a lot of new sports card money flowing in. This applies not just to soccer, which is the entry point, but to other sports as well.
More energy in sports fans has to go somewhere.
The News
America wins their group
-The USA men’s national team secured their group title after only their second game, guaranteeing a favorable knockout game matchup.
After their b-squad nothing-on-the-line 3-2 loss to Turkey, they enter the knockout game against a weak opponent with renewed realism.
Coach Maurcio Pochettino put the team into the perfect position with his decision to rest starters for that game. Not only did he rest starters and get the backups valuable playing time, but a loss in that match re-calibrates a flying-high team to a stark reality that the ball is round, and surprises abound.
It’s in FIFA’s fiscal best interest for the USA to go deep into the tournament, and the money usually leaves a clear logical trail…
Christian Pulisic’s time in the spotlight is coming.
-Elsewhere we had another two big releases of product coming with Bowman Sapphire and Topps Series 2 for Baseball two weeks ago. Add to this one of the biggest sports markets in the world winning the NBA Championship, and June is shaping up to be a barnburner start to finish for sports card guys.
The Framework
Wemby before, during, after the Finals
Lamine Yamal before, during the World Cup
Messi before, during the World Cup
If you have soccer assets, you may be thinking “what’s the proper time to get out?” Been there, my friend.
At the end of the day, archetypes should behave pretty similarly, so I like to break down players into what characteristics they posses and make comparison easy.
Wemby: Hugely anticipated, International, Top tier Market, Physically mold-breaking, Young, Top Tier Game Impact.
The cool thing is, we have another player in soccer you’ve probably heard the name of, but don’t know why he’s special. Here’s what that player looks like for characteristics:
Lamine Yamal: Hugely anticipated, International, Top tier Market, Technically mold-breaking, Young, Top Tier Game Impact.
Oh and one more thing, Lamine is younger (Not yet 19), and more popular (44M Instagram followers vs. Wemby’s 6M).
Wemby’s chart is a beautiful and timely foil for what could happen with Lamine on the biggest stage in the world. Speculators bought in during the mid to later playoffs, sold off when it looked like the Spurs might not make the Finals, came roaring back when they did (and after an initial short selloff) kept his market strong after the Game 5 exit.
On the soccer side for both Lamine and Messi, there was clearly a speculator selloff right before the World Cup, as many people followed the charts of 2022 and saw the same selloff. Fear drove this, but if you listened to what I’ve been saying all along, you know that this is not the 2022 soccer market.
Messi doing legendary Messi things catapulted his market to fresh highs, reminding me of a short squeeze in stock market terms. This is when short sellers who think a stock is going down all of a sudden realize their error all at once and crowd the buy side to reverse their positions.
Spain has been saving Lamine for these coming games, and when we see him dazzle with his footwork and impact, I fully expect to see the same turnaround we saw in Messi’s chart above. It should even be stronger, as expectations around him are not at the same level as the GOAT.
If you want to find the secrets of the universe, think in terms of energy, frequency and vibration.
Nikola Tesla
Keep Building,
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The content reflects the author’s personal opinions and analysis and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any assets. Sports cards and collectibles are speculative investments with significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author may hold positions in assets discussed in this newsletter. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial, tax, and legal professionals before making any investment decisions. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept these terms.