Issue #21 | June 6, 2026
Comped
The Numbers
Short Bitcoin/Long Pokemon would crush
–Baseball largely unchanged
–Basketball 14 week streak, continues impressive movement
–Football slight bump
–Soccer World Cup in 6 days
–Pokemon 21 consecutive weeks of gains
–One Piece correcting after big last week
–S&P 500 very negative week
–Gold ouch
–Bitcoin big ouch
We’re reaching the mirror point in two different markets:
In Pokemon, 21 weeks may have you asking “Can Pokemon ever fall?”
In Bitcoin, “Will it ever recover?”
It’s these times where the contrarian take starts to gain positive expected value (EV). If there’s one thing I’ve found through experience, it’s that the more people crowd onto one side of a take, the more I prepare for the other side of the seesaw.
The current modus operandi has me actually exiting my short term positions, yet getting very interested in opening back up some Bitcoin entry points.
No one can time the market, yet timing is everything…
The News
Wemby’s market is on fire as the NBA Finals heats up. Here’s the returns for Wembanyama’s player index on Cardladder:
2 weeks: 13%
3 months: 222%
We saw this with SGA’s market last year, and then there was a brutal correction immediately. Be warned this is normal, and you already missed the train.
World Cup starts in 6 days. Every major marketplace is taking advantage of the flare-up of interest and releasing a soccer auction. This while I’m unloading 15 months of Hodling and eyeballing that Topps Chrome auction on Alt…👀
2025-26 flagship NBA sets produced 429M+ cards, that’s 1.26M+ copies per base card.
The Framework
Comped Investor subs know that I’m working on valuation models that will form the bedrock for empowering sports cards enthusiasts with real values for cards, not just what the last sale was.
I won’t bore you with the details of how I’m going about this, but a lot of it has to do with comparative valuations within a set, then using that to judge against other sets.
One interesting thing I’m finding so far in the process is that massive hype valuations carry residual value. Here’s one crazy example from the 2019 Topps Chrome Refractors: an Ansu Fati PSA 10 Refractor ($31) goes for more than a Heung-Min Son ($30) PSA 10 Refractor.
Sonny was an elite player and South Korean hero, while Fati was a wunderkind who didn’t pan out. Crazy but true, the spark Fati left in collectors’ minds is enough to put his valuation over a bonafide superstar and cultural icon.
Add Rabbithole Project #15263235 – finding post-hype sleepers as investment prospects in cards. Someday, guys. Someday.
“I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.
Maya Angelou
Keep Building,
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The content reflects the author’s personal opinions and analysis and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any assets. Sports cards and collectibles are speculative investments with significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author may hold positions in assets discussed in this newsletter. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial, tax, and legal professionals before making any investment decisions. By reading this newsletter, you acknowledge and accept these terms.