Released: July 21, 2026 | Duration: 21:03
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About This Episode
Eighteen years of fantasy football, 24 leagues at the peak, and four championship finals last season. Behind the trash talk sits a repeatable process that maps almost perfectly onto sports card investing. This episode of Slabnomics walks through the five phases a dynasty player runs every year and shows why each one has a direct analog in the card market, from off-season inventory work to bringing home a trophy.
The theory starts with a semantic tangent that collapses four hobby camps into two: collecting and investing behave the same over long time frames, and vending and flipping are the same job with different licensing. From there the framework hardens. Preparation is where professionals win on cash flow and inventory tracking. The hype phase (opium in disguise) is where a Messi World Cup bump gets estimated at 10 to 20 percent, not the 200 to 300 percent internet chatter promises. Accumulation is the loud phase everyone loves. In season management is the quiet phase where you sell the running back everyone is polishing a trophy over and rotate into the wide receiver with a favorable back half. Bringing it home is start your studs, prepare for every scenario, then go all in.
The 2020 Jonathan Taylor versus Clyde Edwards Helaire trade sits at the center as a case study in compounding small pockets of value. The closing ask is concrete: write down every position you hold, watch what stops sparking joy, and be willing to redeploy that capital into cards, vacations, or family before life lifes on you. Frameworks at slabnomics.com.
Topics Covered
- Why dynasty fantasy football and sports card investing are the same discipline in different clothing
- Collapsing collector vs investor and flipper vs vendor into one honest framework
- Preparation as the pro phase: cash flow, inventory, and knowing why every buy and sell happened
- The three to four year running back window vs six to seven for wide receivers, applied to card cycles
- Hype as opium: why a Messi World Cup win is a 10 to 20 percent bump, not 2 or 3x
- The 2020 Jonathan Taylor vs Clyde Edwards Helaire draft as a compounding value case study
- In season management: quietly trading the headline player before the market notices
- Bringing it home: start your studs, prepare for every scenario, then go all in
- Writing down your full inventory and letting go of cards that no longer spark joy
Full Transcript
A Fantasy Football Confession
If you've been following along with the Slabnomics channel, even having just listened to the last one, you know that we go into data analysis and we dive deep into it. For those that have been listening for a long time, you also know I go over a lot of theory. And so this episode is going to be a theory episode. Because what I'm sure a lot of you don't know is that I was an absolute fantasy football degenerate. In my heyday two years ago, I had about 24 leagues. About 20 of those were dynasty leagues, four were redrafts.
I've been playing fantasy football for 18 years, and I just love the team-building aspect of it. That's why I had so many dynasty leagues. I love the competitive streak of it, playing with your buddies, trash talking with them, all the good stuff that comes along with it. But at my core, what I really loved was building a team, strategizing within it, and then bringing home the gold. And I was pretty good at it. Even last year, when I ratcheted back to 14 teams, I got into four finals and I won two of those.
Now, this is not a fantasy football channel, so I'm not telling you this so that you can listen to all my tips. But I want to start from a base of knowledge that I have accumulated that I thought was pretty worthless, and I want to apply it into the sports card market because there are many lessons that translate across both of these. We're going to go over different phases that apply to both of those things. We're going to then, of course, apply the lessons that I've learned. Lastly, I'll give you some concrete things to think about and put into practice for sports card and TCG investing.
If this kind of thing is your jam, first give me a like on this video to help out the channel. And second, make sure you're subscribed. I appreciate you guys.
Phase One: The Off-Season
Okay, so let's dive right into the different phases. The first one is going to be the off-season. Now, there's a popular channel of sports cards that actually claims that there isn't an off-season. And in Dynasty Fantasy football, there really is none. I would take about a week or two off, and then I'd start looking at my team, fiddling with things, figuring out who I was going to be trading out, finding out if the upcoming draft class was worth getting picks in, and really just generally taking stock, taking inventory of the assets that I had and how I wanted to transition those.
When it comes to fantasy football, especially dynasty fantasy football, where you own the team from year to year, you're looking at maximizing value. When you maximize value, selling an asset at its peak and being able to buy one before it was properly valued, you do that enough times and you will build yourself a dynasty, just like at the New England Patriots.
Having a nose for value and understanding where the peaks and the troughs are is really what makes you a great dynasty player overall and a great sports card investor. Because the funny thing is, a lot of people will argue about collecting versus investing, flipping versus vending. I think collecting and investing are pretty much the same, and flipping and vending are pretty much the same thing as well. It's really semantics and lenses when you look at these things.
Collecting, Investing, Flipping, Vending
Collecting is something you do for a long period of time. You mostly put it into assets that you enjoy, and your aim usually spans some things like identity, these are things I really love, or memory or nostalgia that you want to go back to. And you might say that's way different than sports card investing, isn't it? Well, if you're a collector, unless you're never going to sell a card ever, either for yourself or your family, your motivation might be different, and it's probably not as different as you want to tell yourself. But the angle is really the same. You don't want to leave your kids with less money, you don't want to have less money in your collection than when you first started. Most people being honest with themselves will admit that.
So, really, it's just about time frames. If you're sports card investing, whether it's short term or long term, your goal is going to be ROI, which is part of your identity. You're probably trying to build a certain life for yourself, your future identity, so that you can empower yourself to that future.
And probably the most unpopular thing I'm going to say here, but flipping and vending is two sides of the same coin. Vending, you're just behind a table, and people say it's okay. Flipping, you're out in the wild, walking around, making deals, and people generally think you're only doing it short term. Well, let me tell you, vendors aren't usually holding cards for long periods of time, guys. Vendors are just licensed by who is ever putting on that show, and flippers are running their own business without any sanction. It's America, it's capitalism, guys.
That tangent aside, which is really just to explain the pejorative connotation of a couple words, was because at the end of the day, we're trying to unlock value both in dynasty fantasy football, regular fantasy football, and in actual vending or flipping, and in collecting or investing for cards. And on both sides, you need to do preparation to know what are the right assets that are going to have the things that you need.
Preparation and Inventory
In fantasy football, if I have a dynasty team, I know where the weaknesses are, I want to shore up, I know where the players are aging out. Maybe this running back's approaching the age lift of 30. One of the best known things for value for value transfer is that running backs have like a three to four year window at their peak, while wide receivers have more like six to seven years. So a lot of times people will sell out a running back after 27, 28 years old and grab that wide receiver that's maybe 26. You're basically lengthening your value curve and you've gotten the best out of that running back that he's going to give you. Unless you get a great situation in season, like Saquon Barkley, happy for that guy to get out of the Giants dumpster fire.
On the sports card side, you have to do preparation as well. There are so many cards out there, millions of cards out there. And if you go to a card show and just pick up whatever is shiny, you're probably not going to pick up the card that eventually becomes a high ROI performer. On the other hand, if you've done all the research and you figured out what is likely to be a good ROI performer because of these different demand spikes that are going to come, or this thing that the market is undervaluing that's about to become more valued, then you're going to be hunting for those specific ROI spikes that you've already designated and found as nuggets out there.
You can take a pickaxe and you can go dig for gold wherever you want. But trust me, if you already have a map to where the gold is and you've researched that, then it's going to take you a lot less time and you're gonna waste a lot less time trying to dig places you shouldn't be digging.
This preparation phase is what the professionals do, especially looking at cash flow management and inventory management. These are very analogous to looking at your dynasty football team and saying, Who do I have? Where is my perception of their value tied to reality or tied to something else? And what improvements can I make?
On the sports card side, if you don't know what your full inventory is, and if you're not keeping track of all your purchases and sales and the why, then you're doing yourself a disservice for your future. If you don't know why that buy was bad or why that sale was bad, then you're just going to repeat it in the future. But keeping records of things allows you to be transparent with yourself. And if you have that transparency, the next step is understanding your own cash flow management and budget.
Cash Flow and Auction Drafts
In the fantasy football world, there's some drafts that are done by auction where you have a certain starting dollar value and then everyone bids for their players to fill their team. And this is a perfect example for what you do in sports cards and TCG. Most of us have a certain budget that we can put into this activity, and the added complexity is that there's going to be a time frame in between when you purchase and when you sell, and this cash flow management is going to be critical for you not overextending yourself when you get excited.
If you're like me and have a little bit of ADHD, you get excited about a certain project, 1996 Topps Chrome Refractors, you start buying all of those, you're doing really well at that, but then you're also studying these other things, you figure this thing out, you put that on hold, you move to this thing, you do that for 15 or 20 years, and you have thousands and thousands of cards that were great ideas just sitting there. If you're not keeping track of your inventory and understanding that there's a has to be a hierarchy of how you value things and invest in them, then your inventory is getting stale and your capital is being locked up.
The way to truly build capital long term is to know when to unlock that capital and move it into higher performing assets, which is exactly what Slabnomics is all about.
Phase Two: The Hype Phase
So obviously, that was my favorite phase. The second phase that we're going to go into is the hype phase. If you follow along with football, you know that during the draft and then the training camps, you are going to hear athletes that are all in the best shape of their life, and they're all going to be the best wide receiver one RB1 the team has ever had. The rookie quarterbacks are slinging it everywhere, they are doing perfect completions, and they all look great in shorts.
This is the same thing that happens when a new set comes out for sports cards. Everyone's excited about the checklist. Oh, look at all these case hits that are here. But this player is actually gonna be the best this year. And this is what most content that you're seeing on Instagram is about, right? How can I buy this player whose team is gonna do so well and he's going to be the star? And I just believe his market's gonna pop up because of that. I'm sure you hear about that a lot in cards. And if you follow fantasy football podcasts like the fantasy footballers, you've heard that plenty of times.
Now, those guys actually do a little bit of data analysis, and to be honest, they're probably one of the most entertaining podcasts out there. They have a lot of inside jokes and a lot of sounds that they throw in. I love it. But when you're looking at true data analysis, you want something like an ex-NFL scout who uses 20 years of experience, looks through film, has like a 40 or 50 point checklist of things he's looking at, and knows what things translate from college to NFL. If you want to take your fantasy football game up a little bit, and that sounds interesting to you, make sure to DM me on Instagram at Slabnomics or leave a comment on this YouTube, and I'll hit you up with that guy's name. He's awesome.
And separating out the hype, which we also call opium in some ways, that drug that makes us think that everything is going to come out roses because that's what hype does. We have to separate all that from the base fundamentals of how has this player performed before and what archetype or mold do they fit into. This is the same thing with those hype pieces that you're seeing. I saw someone talking about how Lionel Messi cards should go up two or three X if they win the World Cup. That's not gonna happen. I think they could probably win the World Cup, but even if they do, you're not gonna see Messi's value spike like that. In fact, I'd say you might see a 10-20% bump right after, and then you'll see it start filtering down a little bit. I hate seeing that kind of stuff because it's not based off of any data.
Similarly, in fantasy football, if someone is just saying now it's his year, now things are gonna change, now the team is suddenly gonna be good. That's not how it works. And sure, you might be right 25% of the time, but that other 75% is gonna kill you.
Selling Into the Hype
So, in both sports cards and in fantasy football, you have to be aware of the hype and see how things are moving because you have to be able to take advantage of that. In fantasy football, I can see hype going for this player, and I can trade out of that at the highest value. The perfect example for this was, I believe, in 2023, when Jonathan Taylor and Clyde Edwards Helaire were coming out, and they were the one-two picks.
Now, Clyde Edwards Helaire was a first-round running back, he had first-round draft capital, he went to the Chiefs, which was an absolute powerhouse, he caught passes, and he was on the LSU championship winning team with Joe Burrow. Now saying that, it was probably 2020. Anyways, it's been a while, guys.
The other guy, on the other hand, was Jonathan Taylor, who is an absolute athletic specimen, a dog. He went to the Wisconsin Badgers, so people said it was just a systems thing that he was successful, but the guy had just produced. Oh, and people said he'd produced too much and gotten too many carries. The 20-year-old. He only had second-round draft capital and he didn't catch passes in college. Now we know how this story ends, but the way that you could have gotten value out there is if you had the first pick, trade that to a guy that's all about Clyde Edwards Helaire, get some added on top for extra draft picks in subsequent years, and take Jonathan Taylor number two, the better asset.
This is what I and many people did. And accumulating these small pockets of value and pushing those forward is what creates compound gains for the future. And that's both in dynasty football and in sports cards. You have to be able to sell out at just the right time and buy in a way that's advantageous. I'm not saying go up to everyone and say 80% bro. I'm saying buy in bulk, buy in marketplaces where things that are listed more cheaply than usual, and buy from people you know that have a good relationship with you. That's how you buy well. Similarly, I'm not gonna tell you, hey, sell at the top, because spoiler alert, nobody can buy at the absolute bottom and sell at the absolute top. But if you get close to both because you're data driven, then you're going to be pushing those gains ever forward and compounding them over long periods of time.
So that's the hype phase and how to take advantage of it.
Phase Three: Accumulation
Now the third phase, which is everybody's favorite, is the accumulation phase. In fantasy football, a lot of times you show up to the draft, especially in work leagues, and a guy will have his little cheat sheet that he got from Matthew Berry, and he's ready, man. He's excited, he's confident, he's been listening to the news reports. Guys like me, who have been studying this stuff for three, four months at the times, are absolute nerds, come in, look at that guy, and know that we don't have anything to worry about. They skipped the first two phases.
Similarly, when it comes to things like sports cards and TCG, if you don't put in the preparation work, if you don't understand where the hype is misplaced and real, then you're going to be making the same mistakes those guys make in fantasy football. When I come in with my cheat sheet, I have the players that I know are fundamentally undervalued, I know where I want to take them in the draft, and I know really where I want to take different players at different rounds because I've done mock drafts. So I know where things go a little bit further than that cheat sheet might say. And I listen to what people are saying so that I can know players that they're trying to pump up in the actual room itself.
And I, like everybody, love the accumulation stage. I am a hunter and a builder by nature. So for me, going around and finding out these opportunities and going and accumulating stuff is what I live for. And I think everybody loves drafting and everybody loves buying those cards. But in both instances, you guys have to know what you're buying for. What am I getting this quarterback for? Why do I think it's a good value here? It can't just be, oh, he's a great quarterback. Why is he a value here versus this quarterback I could have taken 10 rounds later? Same thing with cards. There's a million different cards. Why am I buying this one? Why am I at this show, at this table, trying to get this one card? When am I planning on selling it? Why this card and not those thousands of other ones around me?
And in both cases, the people that have done those first two phases, preparation and the hype cycle phase, they know what they're buying, they know why, and they know how long that cash is going to need to sit within that asset. Or capital or whatever in fantasy football.
Phase Four: In-Season Management
So the accumulation phase is where people think you win in both in fantasy football and in sports cards and TCG. And let me tell you, it certainly helps. But in both things, where you really win is in phase four in season.
Now, in fantasy football, during the season, you have to be looking again for how you did two phases before. Where am I capitalizing on value? Where has this running back been going absolutely ungodly? And I can sell him at that production model and grab someone else who I think is going to have a better second half. Maybe strength of schedule is something that I'm looking at. I know that running back had a cakewalk in their early days. I know that he's a little bit older, so he's gonna slow down towards the end. Maybe they want to keep him fresh for playoffs, and then maybe this wide receiver is on a great team that's he's pretty young, he's still getting into the groove with things, and I know they have a favorable schedule for the back half and the playoffs.
I was doing that trade all the time. Selling high, buying low simultaneously, and usually you're gonna get some extra because that value is so up there on that running back, he's in all the headlines, everybody's talking about him, everyone's thinking that they're already gonna win the league because of what he's been done. Everyone's already polishing their trophy in their mind because they've already won the league six weeks in. Then I quietly trade that player away and grab value.
Same thing with cards. Once you're seeing this card constantly in the headlines, you sell out, you go into the new thing that you're seeing the catalyst for early. Quiet understanding, and that quiet ability to stay disconnected from the hype, but to be aware of it is how you win in general.
Because on a personal note, guys, we are always in different mindsets. Sometimes we're tired, sometimes we're emotional, we have problems going on at work or at home, sometimes we're really happy, sometimes we're on vacation, letting loose. These are all different ways and mindsets that we're living our life in, and the decisions that we make are tied into those. So your sports card decision or your fantasy football decision could be different depending on if you've had a few drinks, if you're in a good mood or a bad mood, etc. etc. As the philosopher says, know thyself.
Phase Five: Bringing It Home
All right. So I think I told you guys we're gonna have four phases, but I like to give you guys bonus stuff, so I have one extra phase. Some would say the most important one. If you love bonuses and are loving this podcast so far, make sure to hit a like on this for me. I appreciate you.
The fifth phase that we're going to talk about is bringing it home. When you're talking about winning a fantasy football trophy against 11 other players, your odds are eight and a half percent. People want to think that they have more odds, and of course, once you get into the playoffs, you're gonna be one of six or one of four, so you do have better odds. But at the end of the day, statistics are statistics, the math is the math. And I found the players that win fantasy football championships do three different things. Number one, they start their studs when it matters. Number two, they prepare when they need to for all eventualities. And then number three, they go all in.
You start your studs because they got you there. Those are the guys that have shown that they can step up and that their team can rely on them. And those are the guys that are better to have at your helm than the guys that are just coming into it. Maybe an injury brought them there and they're gonna get more playing time. Those latter guys haven't been there and done that. Usually running backs can do well on that, but wide receivers, I would not do it.
The second thing is you prepare ahead of times. You know what defenses are gonna have great matchups. I've won a lot that way, and you get those before the playoffs even come. And you make those trades at the end of the season to make sure that your team is well built and prepared for any eventualities. Having backup quarterbacks, having backup running backs, especially because those running backs have a lot of wear and tear, and a lot of times they're gonna be rested for the playoffs. So week 16 or 17 comes and you see a backup running back get 100 and a duty. Happens all the time. So you have to prepare for those things. What are the different scenarios that can happen?
And then last thing, you go all in, you make that trade to get that extra stud to put yourself over the top. Similarly, when we're talking about sports cards, you're making the preparations like we already talked about. You are holding those cards that you know are your best performers and that still have room to run. In my soccer card stuff, I did a lot of this or that. I tried a lot of different things out, but my biggest performers were the ones that I knew were great cards early on. I knew they were well researched, and they were among the best investments I could make. They were rare, they were of the best players, they were in great condition, they were in demand, best sets. And I held on to them long term. And when the time came and I thought that everything had run the way it should have, and I was happy with where I was at, I sold out. And you can always beat yourself up about not making more. But if you know what your time frame is and you know what you're gonna be happy with with your investment when you buy it, then you never really have that problem.
Recap and a Direct Ask
So, to recap, guys, those are the different phases that apply both to fantasy football as well as the sports card and TCG collecting, preparation where you're outworking everyone else, the hype cycle where you're above it, but know exactly what's going on and where the values are shifting, the accumulation phase where you're prepared and you're focused, the in-season management, and then bringing it all home.
And if there's one thing that I would ask you guys to do out of all of this, it's figure out how much you have invested. I like to keep a spreadsheet on that so I can actually say it's this number and see how that changes, but it is a lot of management to do that, but that frees you to understand how to move cash in and out as you need it, so that an unexpected bill doesn't come up and you have to sell out of your best stuff just because life lifed. You have to know your numbers and know if things are serving you and not.
And when you go through and write all this inventory down in whatever way you need to do that, mentally or through an actual spreadsheet, you're probably gonna find stuff that doesn't spark joy in you the way it used to. Don't be afraid to let go of that. Don't be afraid to either take the cash out of that and take it into vacations or do something nice for your family, or put it into other cards that are going to bring you more joy and things that you can look forward to for future time horizons.
For more future things from Slabnomics, make sure you're subscribed and make sure to share this with a friend with whom you play fantasy football. Thanks so much for being here, guys. As always, keep building and I will talk to you later.